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San Francisco’s real estate market is experiencing a significant resurgence in early 2026, characterized by doubled absorption rates and a competitive shift in buyer sentiment across core neighborhoods. This revitalization is being fueled by a surge in AI tech leases and major cultural investments, signaling a robust recovery for the city’s residential and commercial sectors.
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The Sizzle Is Back In San Francisco
and it’s not just the fog lifting
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Here’s something I’ve noticed lately while walking neighborhoods and talking with clients: the conversations have changed.
Buyers are no longer asking if San Francisco will rebound. They’re asking where it’s already happening — and how to get positioned without overreaching. That shift matters.
Here’s the simple truth: momentum doesn’t announce itself loudly at first. It shows up quietly — in more offers being written, more listings going pending, and more confident decision-making month over month.
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A new large-scale public art installation where Bloomingdale’s once was on Mission Street — funded by major tech players including OpenAI — is part of a broader effort to revitalize downtown through culture, not just commerce. City leaders hope this kind of programming will help animate public spaces and draw residents and visitors alike.
The 433-foot-long vinyl mural spans an entire city block and wraps the building’s glass façade; it will be fully unveiled on February 2 as part of Super Bowl LX festivities. Click the photo above to learn more.
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Pro Tip: Don’t wait for the headlines to catch up to the street. In San Francisco, momentum shows up quietly first—look for rising absorption rates in neighborhoods like SoMa and Potrero Hill as a leading indicator of value growth.
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If you look at the absorption data (the percentage of listings that are actually accepting offers), the pattern is hard to miss. Since the fall of 2025, San Francisco has moved into a decisively more competitive phase, with late-2025 activity running at roughly double the pace of the same period in prior years.
In plain English: homes are being absorbed faster, even during months that used to feel sleepy.
Click on the chart below for a market analysis by the numbers.
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Pro Tip: For sellers, the “sleepy” winter months are no longer the rule. With AI firms quietly signing hundreds of leases, proximity to these hidden tech hubs is creating localized demand spikes that make early Q1 an ideal time to list.
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Four years into a frenzied AI arms race in San Francisco, many firms are often hiding in plain sight in neighborhoods without signage or fan fare. Since 2020, there have been 257 office leases signed by AI companies (view map here)
Recent reporting shows AI companies occupying meaningful office space across Yerba Buena, SoMa, South Beach, and the Financial District, spreading into adjacent neighborhoods like Dogpatch, Mission Bay, Hayes Valley and Potrero Hill — even if you don’t see logos on the street yet,
Bottom line: Proximity to tech job hubs is helping to revitalize residential real estate sales in neighborhoods all over the city.
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Here’s your permission to pause—and get clear. If you’re curious how the sizzle is showing up on your block, I’m happy to talk it through. No pressure. Just a smart next step.
Let’s connect!
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Linda LeBlanc
415.734.7303
linda.leblanc@compass.com
www.LindaLeBlanc.com
DRE#: 01787721
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Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California operating under multiple entities. License Numbers 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but is subject to errors, omissions, changes in price, condition, sale, or withdrawal without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description or measurements (including square footage). This is not intended to solicit property already listed. No financial or legal advice provided. Equal Housing Opportunity. Photos may be virtually staged or digitally enhanced and may not reflect actual property conditions.
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